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>
CAGR Across 100 Simulated Return Paths
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Holding period (years)
CAGR
31%
59%
48%
41%
36%
36%
34%
28%
17%
15%
13%
14%
16%
17%
16%
17%
17%
17%
16%
16%
52%
30%
26%
27%
19%
20%
10%
9%
12%
14%
12%
12%
12%
13%
13%
12%
12%
14%
13%
13%
24%
9%
0%
8%
14%
12%
11%
13%
12%
12%
13%
13%
14%
13%
14%
15%
15%
16%
15%
13%
30%
33%
44%
44%
32%
34%
36%
30%
29%
24%
25%
26%
24%
24%
26%
26%
26%
25%
25%
25%
15%
22%
27%
31%
22%
21%
19%
18%
14%
13%
12%
11%
13%
11%
9%
8%
6%
7%
7%
7%
14%
22%
29%
19%
22%
25%
23%
18%
23%
21%
21%
18%
20%
21%
21%
21%
22%
23%
19%
17%
46%
14%
7%
12%
15%
16%
13%
18%
17%
16%
15%
16%
17%
16%
16%
16%
13%
12%
12%
13%
-24%
-10%
2%
12%
18%
18%
14%
14%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
28%
21%
23%
29%
31%
20%
18%
21%
21%
18%
20%
22%
23%
26%
26%
24%
23%
21%
22%
22%
27%
-5%
-3%
1%
-2%
-3%
1%
5%
4%
4%
6%
6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
5%
2%
2%
1%
30%
30%
28%
20%
20%
19%
19%
20%
16%
16%
16%
16%
15%
14%
16%
16%
17%
17%
17%
14%
17%
12%
8%
6%
3%
7%
10%
7%
11%
14%
11%
13%
12%
10%
4%
7%
7%
8%
10%
9%
18%
21%
9%
12%
11%
12%
16%
19%
14%
16%
13%
13%
11%
13%
14%
14%
11%
13%
13%
13%
31%
25%
17%
13%
19%
19%
19%
21%
20%
19%
21%
22%
23%
25%
26%
24%
24%
22%
21%
21%
15%
31%
33%
29%
27%
23%
26%
23%
23%
27%
24%
23%
19%
19%
19%
20%
19%
18%
17%
17%
-3%
3%
-14%
-4%
-3%
3%
-1%
2%
3%
3%
3%
5%
7%
10%
9%
7%
8%
9%
10%
10%
-6%
7%
14%
8%
16%
17%
15%
16%
11%
12%
10%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
14%
14%
14%
27%
36%
43%
30%
33%
32%
29%
30%
17%
19%
20%
18%
16%
16%
13%
13%
16%
15%
15%
12%
-6%
-12%
-18%
-10%
-11%
-8%
-5%
-3%
-2%
0%
0%
3%
4%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
7%
9%
75%
55%
43%
29%
25%
25%
25%
24%
27%
28%
28%
26%
30%
29%
28%
30%
29%
29%
27%
27%
5%
10%
6%
5%
6%
-2%
2%
5%
7%
5%
6%
8%
5%
5%
6%
7%
7%
6%
7%
7%
10%
9%
5%
8%
6%
9%
12%
14%
14%
12%
13%
15%
14%
13%
16%
18%
18%
20%
19%
14%
-4%
18%
4%
6%
-2%
3%
1%
3%
2%
6%
7%
6%
5%
6%
9%
7%
9%
8%
9%
10%
62%
13%
17%
17%
20%
20%
14%
13%
11%
13%
15%
15%
14%
12%
12%
8%
10%
10%
11%
10%
20%
29%
26%
25%
22%
20%
20%
20%
22%
23%
24%
24%
21%
20%
22%
20%
20%
17%
17%
16%
28%
39%
24%
14%
13%
9%
8%
8%
9%
5%
7%
9%
9%
10%
10%
11%
7%
0%
1%
1%
20%
26%
19%
12%
8%
9%
8%
7%
3%
3%
3%
4%
3%
6%
3%
5%
6%
6%
8%
10%
4%
23%
20%
15%
16%
19%
20%
24%
18%
17%
17%
19%
16%
17%
17%
18%
16%
15%
16%
15%
8%
8%
12%
10%
10%
13%
10%
11%
14%
17%
17%
18%
17%
18%
15%
15%
15%
15%
14%
15%
-1%
-14%
-12%
2%
11%
13%
16%
15%
16%
14%
13%
7%
10%
12%
11%
11%
11%
12%
14%
14%
70%
36%
24%
16%
16%
16%
16%
15%
13%
13%
11%
13%
11%
10%
9%
8%
9%
8%
9%
8%
54%
18%
14%
13%
9%
15%
16%
12%
11%
12%
15%
12%
13%
13%
15%
17%
17%
17%
18%
16%
24%
-12%
-1%
5%
-1%
-4%
-3%
0%
2%
3%
6%
6%
6%
7%
9%
9%
6%
7%
9%
9%
20%
6%
7%
12%
11%
6%
5%
4%
8%
6%
9%
11%
8%
8%
8%
6%
6%
5%
7%
7%
5%
7%
-2%
-4%
-12%
-9%
-9%
-5%
-1%
0%
4%
6%
6%
6%
5%
6%
7%
5%
6%
7%
16%
33%
24%
9%
12%
12%
13%
15%
15%
14%
16%
18%
20%
20%
21%
16%
15%
16%
17%
18%
29%
39%
39%
40%
19%
25%
23%
19%
21%
24%
25%
25%
25%
26%
24%
23%
22%
23%
24%
23%
38%
30%
22%
23%
19%
18%
19%
18%
15%
15%
14%
14%
13%
12%
10%
11%
10%
9%
10%
9%
23%
36%
33%
18%
15%
9%
10%
16%
15%
19%
19%
22%
18%
16%
14%
12%
12%
11%
10%
10%
21%
8%
-1%
6%
6%
7%
4%
8%
5%
6%
4%
4%
4%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
4%
-46%
-25%
-13%
-9%
-4%
2%
5%
2%
6%
8%
9%
10%
13%
12%
12%
13%
13%
14%
14%
14%
32%
31%
23%
26%
21%
24%
18%
22%
18%
14%
15%
17%
17%
17%
16%
16%
14%
14%
15%
17%
23%
3%
11%
16%
23%
18%
20%
21%
17%
17%
15%
15%
14%
16%
17%
16%
14%
14%
15%
14%
45%
41%
34%
36%
23%
16%
17%
18%
17%
16%
12%
15%
16%
15%
15%
15%
13%
13%
14%
15%
7%
5%
18%
25%
24%
28%
27%
28%
25%
24%
23%
19%
17%
19%
19%
20%
19%
20%
20%
17%
12%
13%
20%
8%
3%
4%
4%
9%
11%
7%
0%
-2%
-3%
-1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
3%
5%
23%
42%
35%
26%
17%
18%
17%
17%
18%
10%
10%
8%
6%
7%
9%
8%
9%
11%
10%
10%
49%
45%
35%
35%
26%
16%
15%
14%
11%
13%
16%
18%
18%
20%
20%
22%
23%
22%
22%
22%
-36%
-27%
-7%
-6%
-8%
-6%
-16%
-15%
-12%
-10%
-6%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-3%
-2%
-1%
-2%
0%
1%
5%
24%
22%
21%
17%
17%
20%
23%
26%
22%
19%
20%
18%
17%
18%
18%
18%
18%
17%
17%
41%
25%
17%
6%
-9%
-7%
-2%
-4%
0%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
6%
5%
5%
27%
30%
6%
3%
8%
0%
2%
1%
1%
2%
4%
8%
7%
7%
5%
5%
5%
6%
5%
7%
9%
17%
2%
0%
-3%
-1%
3%
-4%
-2%
-1%
0%
4%
6%
5%
7%
6%
9%
8%
10%
10%
20%
19%
24%
6%
8%
7%
6%
4%
6%
5%
2%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
4%
6%
6%
6%
3%
7%
11%
6%
5%
10%
8%
7%
5%
6%
7%
9%
9%
10%
10%
11%
8%
8%
8%
7%
41%
38%
26%
20%
23%
21%
21%
11%
15%
13%
13%
8%
6%
8%
8%
9%
8%
10%
10%
13%
37%
26%
23%
29%
29%
29%
26%
24%
23%
24%
23%
23%
21%
18%
17%
16%
17%
15%
17%
16%
13%
0%
-1%
9%
12%
18%
16%
16%
12%
13%
14%
13%
13%
15%
16%
15%
16%
16%
16%
17%
42%
20%
21%
8%
8%
12%
14%
12%
11%
10%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
5%
6%
6%
8%
6%
36%
33%
14%
11%
13%
13%
9%
10%
9%
11%
13%
15%
16%
16%
13%
11%
10%
10%
10%
12%
56%
62%
51%
45%
47%
39%
39%
35%
30%
31%
33%
34%
30%
28%
26%
24%
23%
24%
20%
20%
21%
31%
27%
23%
16%
15%
21%
18%
20%
19%
17%
20%
21%
22%
22%
23%
25%
25%
23%
22%
15%
18%
13%
11%
8%
14%
16%
18%
19%
22%
22%
23%
19%
20%
18%
17%
17%
17%
18%
17%
7%
19%
13%
18%
20%
12%
15%
15%
9%
6%
7%
10%
10%
13%
15%
15%
14%
13%
14%
12%
30%
-2%
1%
7%
12%
12%
15%
16%
16%
16%
16%
15%
15%
17%
17%
17%
18%
14%
16%
16%
60%
45%
48%
52%
55%
45%
39%
38%
35%
27%
24%
25%
23%
21%
19%
19%
19%
20%
21%
19%
-4%
-6%
6%
5%
8%
6%
5%
4%
5%
8%
11%
12%
10%
9%
11%
11%
11%
11%
12%
13%
13%
9%
15%
5%
12%
4%
5%
7%
9%
13%
14%
16%
13%
12%
14%
14%
15%
14%
14%
15%
37%
21%
20%
17%
14%
15%
16%
12%
10%
9%
5%
5%
8%
9%
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
9%
-1%
2%
3%
7%
9%
13%
0%
4%
3%
2%
0%
1%
2%
4%
4%
5%
7%
8%
9%
10%
13%
2%
15%
17%
16%
21%
19%
20%
19%
18%
20%
20%
19%
19%
18%
18%
19%
19%
18%
15%
33%
19%
25%
11%
8%
8%
8%
12%
10%
10%
7%
9%
6%
7%
8%
10%
10%
10%
12%
13%
58%
32%
20%
25%
29%
16%
16%
12%
12%
9%
12%
13%
15%
17%
16%
17%
14%
15%
13%
13%
22%
11%
1%
3%
7%
11%
12%
11%
8%
3%
4%
4%
3%
4%
7%
7%
10%
9%
8%
9%
7%
31%
17%
24%
26%
22%
21%
22%
20%
20%
19%
19%
19%
18%
18%
19%
19%
18%
15%
15%
-18%
0%
1%
-9%
-4%
0%
5%
7%
8%
8%
7%
6%
8%
10%
11%
12%
10%
11%
12%
13%
36%
19%
24%
-1%
1%
2%
-6%
-7%
-7%
-1%
-4%
-4%
0%
2%
4%
5%
7%
8%
9%
11%
34%
11%
20%
8%
11%
14%
11%
12%
13%
12%
14%
16%
15%
15%
17%
16%
17%
17%
18%
15%
22%
28%
18%
15%
8%
12%
15%
13%
15%
17%
18%
15%
16%
13%
13%
16%
17%
17%
19%
18%
-7%
8%
4%
8%
1%
5%
6%
6%
6%
4%
3%
4%
7%
7%
6%
4%
6%
7%
8%
9%
8%
27%
17%
14%
21%
18%
19%
14%
12%
12%
16%
15%
16%
16%
19%
19%
19%
17%
14%
13%
14%
17%
10%
20%
20%
15%
13%
17%
15%
18%
14%
13%
12%
11%
12%
13%
13%
14%
14%
14%
19%
16%
16%
11%
17%
21%
15%
14%
13%
16%
16%
18%
19%
19%
16%
18%
18%
18%
16%
13%
-15%
-26%
-7%
-11%
-7%
-1%
0%
-1%
0%
1%
-1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
5%
6%
4%
3%
4%
-17%
4%
20%
14%
8%
7%
3%
3%
4%
7%
8%
9%
10%
7%
7%
9%
9%
10%
9%
7%
-1%
13%
13%
7%
7%
7%
7%
11%
14%
15%
13%
5%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
7%
8%
9%
4%
14%
8%
13%
-4%
-5%
0%
5%
7%
8%
10%
9%
8%
8%
9%
10%
11%
11%
11%
11%
48%
30%
14%
18%
17%
17%
18%
21%
22%
20%
20%
17%
18%
17%
17%
18%
17%
17%
17%
13%
20%
18%
10%
3%
8%
10%
16%
12%
11%
12%
12%
14%
13%
16%
16%
14%
14%
14%
15%
12%
9%
15%
4%
1%
5%
4%
3%
4%
8%
5%
6%
7%
6%
5%
2%
3%
4%
6%
7%
9%
26%
28%
12%
19%
19%
24%
25%
23%
23%
21%
18%
18%
19%
17%
18%
17%
19%
18%
17%
16%
16%
3%
13%
24%
28%
20%
21%
13%
12%
13%
14%
18%
17%
17%
16%
16%
15%
16%
14%
13%
39%
38%
23%
19%
23%
20%
16%
15%
14%
12%
14%
14%
14%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
17%
15%
9%
-15%
-23%
-10%
-12%
-9%
-7%
-2%
1%
0%
4%
4%
6%
6%
8%
10%
12%
12%
11%
11%
11%
25%
16%
18%
27%
22%
24%
23%
20%
17%
16%
13%
15%
11%
12%
13%
13%
14%
14%
14%
-10%
8%
23%
17%
21%
9%
9%
11%
8%
11%
10%
13%
15%
14%
16%
17%
16%
16%
17%
17%
-10%
2%
4%
1%
8%
14%
9%
10%
13%
15%
17%
15%
15%
12%
14%
13%
13%
13%
10%
11%
-9%
-8%
-7%
0%
1%
3%
4%
5%
2%
-1%
1%
2%
2%
5%
8%
7%
5%
4%
5%
4%
11%
5%
9%
6%
11%
12%
14%
10%
6%
6%
9%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
6%
7%
9%
10%
13%
36%
24%
23%
30%
28%
28%
28%
22%
20%
20%
16%
15%
16%
16%
16%
15%
16%
15%
17%
